¿El Déficit Fiscal Deteriora el Tipo de Cambio Real? Evidencias por medio de un modelo de EGDE para Argentina
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35319/26r49g29Palabras clave:
Equilibrio General, Gasto público, Reducción de Impuestos, Tipo de Cambio RealResumen
Acorde a los marcos teóricos estándar, como los modelos de Ciclos Reales (RBC) o las Teorías Neokeynesianas, el tipo de cambio real debería apreciarse en respuesta a un aumento en el gasto público. Sin embargo, la literatura empírica encuentra resultados mixtos. Ofrecemos una respuesta a este enigma analizando el impacto del déficit fiscal según su composición en el tipo de cambio real. Utilizando un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico con gobierno y sector externo, cuantificamos el impacto diferencial sobre el tipo de cambio real generado por diversas fuentes de déficit fiscal: un aumento en el gasto destinado a consumo público, aumento de la inversión pública y reducción de impuestos. Calibramos y simulamos el modelo para Argentina y encontramos que el déficit fiscal originado en la reducción de impuestos mejora el tipo de cambio real mientras que el generado por un aumento del gasto deteriora el tipo de cambio real. En particular, este deterioro es más significativo cuando el gasto se destina al consumo público que cuando se destina a la inversión pública. Argumentamos que cuantificar estos efectos diferentes sobre el tipo de cambio dentro de un marco de equilibrio general estocástico dinámico es un ejercicio esencial de economía política para economías emergentes altamente dolarizadas que exhiben un mayor pass-through.
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