El éxito de Tesla ¿realidad o una burbuja? Perspectivas desde las finanzas conductuales y las narrativas económicas
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35319/ntsd7e32Palabras clave:
Finanzas conductuales, Narrativas económicas, Sesgos cognitivosResumen
Esta investigación presenta evidencia mediante un análisis basado en las finanzas conductuales y las narrativas económicas de que Tesla presenta una sobrevaluación en el precio de su acción, se pudo observar que el inversor de Tesla ostenta sesgos de sobre confianza y sobre reacciona a las noticias e historias acerca de la empresa, disparando así el valor de la acción a precios elevados y mantenidos, retando así a la hipótesis de mercados eficientes haciendo que la labor de arbitraje realizada por los inversores denominados racionales sea bastante riesgosa y poco atractiva. Se responden dos preguntas importantes con relación a los fundamentos en los cuales se sostiene el valor de la acción y en ver si el comportamiento del inversor de Tesla es de carácter racional o irracional.
Descargas
Referencias
Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. J. (2015). Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvc777w8
Barberis, N., & Thaler, R. (2005). Chapter1. A Survey of Behavioral Finance. En Advances in Behavioral Finance, Volume II (pp. 1-76). Princeton University Press. https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9781400829125-004/html
Bellon, T. (2020, agosto 27). Tesla shares surge to record high, leaving rivals behind. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-stocks-idUSKBN25N2XO
Bera, T. B., Ayanti. (2020, abril 2). Tesla sees strong Model Y production, deliveries; shares rise. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries-idUSKBN21K3A3
Bjursell, C., & Melin, L. (2011). Proactive and reactive plots: Narratives in entrepreneurial identity construction. International Journal of Gender and Entrepreneurship, 3(3), 218-235. https://doi.org/10.1108/17566261111169313
Bondt, W. F. M. D., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.x
Booker, C. (2004). The Seven Basic Plots: Why We Tell Stories. A&C Black.
Brochado, A. (2020). Google search based sentiment indexes. IIMB Management Review, 32(3), 325-335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2019.10.015
Chundakkadan, R. (2021). Light a lamp and look at the stock market. Financial Innovation, 7(1), 19. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-021-00232-6
Daniel, K., & Hirshleifer, D. (2015). Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(4), 61-87.
De Long, J. B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H., & Waldmann, R. J. (1990). Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets. Journal of Political Economy, 98(4), 703-738.
de Lucas, S. F., & Calvo, J. R. (s. f.). Finanzas del comportamiento. Revisión bibliográfica. 62.
Escalas, J. E. (s. f.). Self-Referencing and Persuasion: Narrative Transportation Versus Analytical Elaboration.
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
Gaur, M., & Kant, R. (2021). Can Narrative Economics Justify Economic Fluctuations and Inequality? An Approach from Micro to Macro Perspective. Theoretical Economics Letters, 11(01), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2021.111001
Goh, Y. S., Brenda. (2020, junio 10). Tesla shares surge past $1,000 as Musk revs up the Semi. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-truck-idUSKBN23H1PE
Google Books Ngram Viewer. (s. f.). Recuperado 23 de mayo de 2021, de https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=Tesla&year_start=1800&year_end=2019&corpus=26&smoothing=4
Hernández Sampieri, R., Fernández Collado, C., & Pilar Baptista Lucio, M. (2014). Metodología de la investigación. McGraw-Hill.
Hirshleifer, D. (2001). Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing. The Journal of Finance, 56(4), 1533-1597.
Jurevičienė, D., Skvarciany, V., & Lagunavičiūtė, A. (2020). Factors influencing individuals’ decision-making and causing financial crisis. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 21(4), 1149-1164. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2020.12890
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
Krauskopf, N. R., Lewis. (2020, diciembre 19). Tesla shares jump to record high ahead of S&P 500 debut. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla-idUSKBN28S0L5
Lienert, P. (s. f.). Tesla electrifies the auto industry’s new era. Reuters. Recuperado 28 de mayo de 2021, de https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-TESLA/NEWERA/bdwvkerrkvm/
Machill, M., Köhler, S., & Waldhauser, M. (2007). The Use of Narrative Structures in Television News: An Experiment in Innovative Forms of Journalistic Presentation. European Journal of Communication, 22(2), 185-205. https://doi.org/10.1177/0267323107076769
Malmendier, U., & Taylor, T. (2015). On the Verges of Overconfidence. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(4), 3-7.
Massey, C., & Thaler, R. (2005). Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League (N.o w11270). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w11270
Nyman, R., Kapadia, S., & Tuckett, D. (2021). News and narratives in financial systems: Exploiting big data for systemic risk assessment. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 127, 104-119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104119
O’Connor, P. E. (2000). Speaking of Crime: Narratives of Prisoners. U of Nebraska Press.
Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. G. (2021). The Psychology of Fake News. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 25(5), 388-402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2021.02.007
Pollock, T., & Rindova, V. (2003). Media legitimation effects in the market for initial public offerings. Academy of Management Journal, 46. https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/30040654
Shiller, R. (s. f.). Narratives About Technology-Induced Job Degradation Then and Now. 24.
Shiller, R. I. (2018). NARRATIVE ECONOMICS AND NEUROECONOMICS. Finance: Theory and Practice, 22(1), 64-91. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2018-22-1-64-91
Shiller, R. J. (1998). Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System (N.o w6375). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w6375
Shiller, R. J. (1999). Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence (N.o w7008). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w7008
Shiller, R. J. (2003). From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 83-104. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533003321164967
Shiller, R. J. (2014). Speculative Asset Prices. The American Economic Review, 104(6), 1486-1517.
Shiller, R. J. (2015). Irrational Exuberance: Revised and Expanded Third Edition. Princeton University Press.
Shiller, R. J. (2017). Narrative Economics. The American Economic Review, 107(4), 967-1004.
Shiller, R. J. (2019). Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvdf0jm5
Shiller, R. J. (2020). Popular Economic Narratives Advancing the Longest U.S. Economic Expansion 2009-2019 (N.o w26857). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26857
Shiller, R. J., Fischer, S., & Friedman, B. M. (1984). Stock Prices and Social Dynamics. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1984(2), 457-510. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534436
Staff, R. (2019a, noviembre 27). Gamblers back Tesla in Ford tug of war as orders reach 250,000. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-orders-idUSKBN1Y10DR
Staff, R. (2019b, diciembre 20). Tesla shares inch closer to Musk’s $420 take- private offer. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-stocks-idUSKBN1YO24U
Staff, R. (2020a, abril 9). Tesla’s China sales hit record high in March: Industry association. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-china-sales-idUSKCN21R1B3
Staff, R. (2020b, julio 8). Tesla China sold 14,954 Model 3 vehicles in June, up 35% on the month. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-china-idUSKBN249175
Strauss, N., & Smith, C. H. (2019). Buying on rumors: How financial news flows affect the share price of Tesla. Corporate Communications: An International Journal, 24(4), 593-607. https://doi.org/10.1108/CCIJ-09-2018-0091
Tesla’s upcoming S&P 500 debut fuels «crazy» trading volume | Reuters. (s. f.). Recuperado 28 de mayo de 2021, de https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-upcoming-sp-500-debut-fuels-crazy-trading-volume-idUSKBN28530L
Thaler, R. H. (1986). The Psychology and Economics Conference Handbook: Comments on Simon, on Einhorn and Hogarth, and on Tversky and Kahneman. The Journal of Business, 59(4), S279-S284.
Thaler, R. H. (2018a). Economía del comportamiento: Pasado, presente y futuro. Revista de Economía Institucional, 20(38), 9-43. https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v20n38.02
Thaler, R. H. (2018b). From Cashews to Nudges: The Evolution of Behavioral Economics. American Economic Review, 108(6), 1265-1287. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.108.6.1265
Van Bavel, J., & Pereira, A. (2018). The Partisan Brain: An Identity-Based Model of Political Belief. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2018.01.004
Weber, M., Davis, K., & McPhie, L. (2006). Narrative Therapy, Eating Disorders and Groups: Enhancing Outcomes in Rural NSW. Australian Social Work, 59(4), 391-405. https://doi.org/10.1080/03124070600985970
Descargas
Publicado
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2021 Revista Perspectivas
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.
La Revista Perspectivas de la Universidad Católica Boliviana, es una revista de acceso abierto, por lo tanto, es de libre acceso en su integridad. Está permitida su lectura, búsqueda, descarga, distribución y reutilización legal en cualquier tipo de soporte únicamente para fines no comerciales, siempre y cuando la obra sea debidamente citada.
